Reports Archives - Miles-McClellan Construction

Q3 2024 Economic Indicators

mmcrebuildstg on November 7, 2024

Architecture Firm Billings and Reconstruction Trends: A significant portion of architecture firms report steady or increased work on reconstruction projects, focusing on modernization, adaptive reuse, and upgrades in building systems. However, challenges loom as billings have declined for 12 straight months, including securing agreements for larger projects, partly due to high interest rates.

ABC Construction Backlog and Confidence: The Construction Backlog Indicator showed a slight increase in September 2024, reflecting moderate confidence in future sales and profit margins despite economic headwinds. Contractors are optimistic about the easing of interest rates and material costs.

Dodge Momentum Index: The index, a leading indicator of nonresidential construction, declined by 4.2% in September due to a slowdown in data center projects, though institutional projects in education and healthcare saw growth. The index remains high, driven by institutional, education, healthcare, and recreational projects entering the planning queue.

Sector-Specific Forecasts:

Nonresidential Construction: Expected to slow, with key drivers including economic factors like high office vacancy rates and reduced warehouse construction.
Healthcare and Education: Stable investment levels are anticipated, with growth expected in late 2025. Education sector growth is projected due to bond measures and continued support for higher-education projects.
Residential: Multifamily residential construction is forecasted to decline due to inventory surpluses and stable rental rates, while single-family residential shows signs of recovery.
Manufacturing: Federal funding initiatives are expected to fuel a significant increase in construction investment in semiconductors, electric vehicles, and biomanufacturing sectors. However, talent shortages and supply chain issues pose challenges.

Outlook: The construction industry expects moderate growth through 2024, with slower expansion in sectors sensitive to interest rates. Anticipated federal rate cuts in 2025 may stimulate new projects, particularly in public safety, manufacturing, and amusement/recreation. Our report reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook, tempered by ongoing challenges related to high interest rates, supply chain constraints, and sector-specific issues like high office vacancies and the multifamily housing slowdown.

2024 Q2 Economic Indicators

mmcrebuildstg on October 3, 2024

High interest rates are causing ongoing uncertainty across various market segments for the rest of 2024. Projects that depend on financing are facing significant challenges, limiting substantial growth. Despite these hurdles, the broader industry is showing resilience against economic pressures, positioning us for steady, incremental growth throughout the year.

Projects most impacted by financing include multifamily, lodging, and commercial construction. According to the AIA, one-third of delays are due to financing and economic concerns, with billings falling for the 11th consecutive month. Despite these challenges, the FMI report forecasts that engineering and construction spending will finish 6% higher than in 2023. Manufacturing and public safety are up 20%, supporting the industry alongside education and healthcare, which are expected to show sustained growth. Dodge reports that data centers account for a significant portion of the backlog in the commercial market.

Quick facts:

AIA: 11^th consecutive month of declining billings.
ABC: Backlog is down to 8.4 months from 9.3 in 2023.
FMI: Spending is forecasted to be up 6% YOY.
Dodge: Data centers are accounting for a significant portion of commercial growth.

The Fed began cutting rates in Q3 and is expected to continue doing so in a slow, methodical manner. If rates keep dropping, delayed projects may gain momentum in 2025. For more insights on how interest rates impact backlog and project planning, read our report.

MM Market Experience:

Much of our pipeline in Columbus and Charlotte aligns with the segments reporting growth. Year-to-date, we have responded to 130 RFPs, with 45% being public projects that are not affected by interest rates. While we have seen some activity from clients in the multifamily, hotel, and office sectors, these projects have generally been slower to secure financing and move forward.

MM Market Breakdown YTD:

45% Public / Higher Ed. / Government
20% Commercial / Warehouses / Data Centers
13% Healthcare
16% Industrial / Manufacturing
6% other (religious, recreation, etc.)

2024 Q1 Economic Indicator

mmcrebuildstg on June 11, 2024

Contrary to earlier predictions of a recession in early 2024, the AIA and FMI now suggest a potential slowdown in the back half of 2024. While our indicators do point to a deceleration, our internal data and anecdotal evidence consistently demonstrate the robustness of the construction industry, which does not align with the notion of a significant downturn.

To summarize the AIA and FMI reports, they expect an increase in construction spending between 2-3% in 2024, followed by a rise of 1% in 2025. Accounting for the anticipated slowdown of construction over the next two years, the AIA points to three factors that, when combined, cause banks to tighten up lending, resulting in difficulty in getting projects started:

Rising long-term interest rates.
Higher construction input costs with input prices remaining 35% to 40% higher than pre-pandemic rates.
Construction labor costs are continuing to rise at a 4% annual pace.

Despite the AIA Billing Index remaining below 50 for 9 consecutive months and the Dodge Momentum Index staying low for the past 10 months, the Charlotte and Columbus construction markets are still brimming with potential. Contractor backlogs, as measured by ABC and FMI, saw an increase at the end of Q1. This positive trend is mirrored at Miles-McClellan, where our backlog is higher today than it was at the end of Q1.

As you read the full report, you will learn more details about these numbers and trends.

Recent MM Bidding Experience

Immediately below is a summary from one recent bid effort, but it indicates what our teams are experiencing as they continue to price projects for our clients actively.

Sharing a recent bidding experience, Brad Bloomberg, MM Vice President, expressed, “Our most recent bid was for a local office remodel in downtown Columbus. The project primarily focuses on updating elevator lobbies, restrooms’ finishes, lighting, and ceilings. We had a prequalified list of limited subcontractors invited to the project. While the coverage was average on drywall and fire suppression, we received feedback from painters, electricians, and HVAC contractors that they were too busy with the existing backlog over the summer months to take on any new work.”

Painting: 2 bidders of the 7 invited.
Electrical: 2 bidders of the 10 invited.
HVAC: 1 bidder of the 10 invited.
Flooring: 2 bidders of the 6 invited.
Drywall & Demo: 4 bidders of the 5 invited.
Fire Suppression: 3 bidders of the 6 invited.

This level of bidding activity is typical for the summer months. We will monitor the trends and report on contractor backlogs in Q3.

Read the Report

2023 Q4 Economic Indicator

mmcrebuildstg on March 5, 2024

The follow excerpt it taken from the FMI 2024 North American Engineering and Construction Industry Overview, First Quarter Edition.

“Best case assumptions for our forecast is for a recession in 2024, likely sometime during the first half of the year. These expectations are based on a range of predictive economic indicators, but especially the inverted yield curve. The duration of the economic contraction will depend on the U.S. policy response, but as with historical cycles, the impact on the construction industry will likely be longer lasting.”

All the lead indicators presented in our Q4 2023 Economic Indicator continue to reflect a downward trend and support the statement made by FMI above. Additionally, what we are experiencing in the market only supports this story further.

We have watched private bidding opportunities almost completely dry-up. We attribute this to current interest rates, owners’ fear of a recession, and the sheer number of vacant office spaces available.
With less private bidding opportunities we have had to jump into the public bid market which makes up just over 90% of our total bid opportunities. For the first two months of 2024, in both Columbus and Charlotte, we have seen an average of 6-8 general contractors per bid list, when a year ago at this time there were only 2-3 bidders per list.
Our teams have also seen a wider geographic area of subcontractors bidding on projects. Previously our subcontract bidders were contained to the Columbus market. Now we are receiving bids from subcontractors we have never received bids from before, including out of state firms from West Virginia, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois.
Additionally, the sheer number of bids that we are receiving per subcontractor trade has more than doubled. Previously, we would receive 2-3 bids per trade category, and now we are receiving 6-7, the only exception being mechanical, electrical and plumbing. We are still only receiving 2-3 subcontractor bids in these skilled trade categories, and we assume that is because of a shortage in skilled labor in Columbus driven by the number of large, technical projects.

2023 Q3 Economic Indicator

mmcrebuildstg on November 15, 2023

The forecast briefing headline included in this month’s Construction Executive magazine was short and simple, “The National Economy is Weakening.”

While speaking on the magazine’s 2023 Q3 “Economic Update and Forecast” webinar, Anirban Basu, The Associated Builders and Contractors’ Chief Economist, said, “the economy has been much stronger than I would have anticipated.” But while job growth, low unemployment and increased spending on construction are positive signs, Basu remains wary of the longer-term outlook, pointing to red flags such as skyrocketing credit-card debt and other industry economic indicators. “My view,” Basu told his online audience, “is the national economy is weakening, increasingly under pressure from higher interest rates, strikes, worker shortages and loss of production; borrowing costs are higher; and excess inflation persists.”

Our attached report, is one quick and easy way to see the trends behind the headline. The AIA Billing Index is on a four month negative trend, including the last two months below 50. The ABC and FMI backlog indicators are both on negative trends and neither has returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Quick summary: Contractor backlogs are lower right now and there will be less opportunities to pursue throughout 2024. For owners, this could ultimately result in increased competition and more competitive pricing.

A couple of examples from Q3 Miles-McClellan bidding and budgeting efforts:

Craig Richards, Vice President, “Our division originally bid a sizeable renovation project to a large, international CM firm. During Q3, 2021, the wall protection package was worth $6.7M and was removed from the scope of work due to being over budget. The package was rebid during Q2 of 2023 at $7.6M. This was a 13% increase in 18 months.”
Kevin Joseph, Project Executive, “My team is continuing to feel the effects of bad owner budgets. We recently were low bidder on a City of Columbus job that is 45% over budget. The job is unawardable and the City is now trying to figure out what they can do to value engineer the job. I’m not confident that value engineering will be able to make up such a large disconnect between the budget and the reality of local construction costs. We were also recently low bidder on a public job in Mifflin Township that is unawardable due to a blown budget.”
Matt Recchiuti, Vice President, “Much like Kevin, really the only trend I am seeing is that Architects are woefully underestimating public budgets to owners, and almost all of the Public Work bids are having to re-bid to due a shortage of requested funds. We are still seeing delays in HVAC equipment and Electrical gear, most of the time up to a year.”

Second Quarter Economic Indicator – A look back

mmcrebuildstg on August 23, 2023

As we quickly pass Q2 and move into Q3, we are starting to understand better how the year will shape up. I recently had a chance to review The Conference Board’s (TCB) website for a description of what they see ahead. TCB’s mission is to be a “member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead to help our members improve performance and better serve society.” In a bullet point summary, TCB’s most recent update included:

Real GDP rose by 2.4% in Q2 ahead of the expected 1.8% forecasted. This resulted from a weakening demand in consumer consumption being more than offset by business investment.
Consumer consumption growth of both goods and services cooled in Q2. This trend is expected to continue for the remainder of 2023 due to three factors:
- real disposable income is down;
- pandemic excess savings are gone, and consumers are carrying historic debt levels;
- mandatory student loan repayments are set to resume.
Business investment did more than offset the decrease in consumer spending in Q2, showing sizable spends in transportation equipment, facility structures and intellectual property products. However, this information came with a warning: TCB expects weakening consumer demand throughout the remainder of 2023, combined with high interest rates to reverse business spending trends.

A couple of examples from Q2 Miles-McClellan bidding and budgeting efforts:

Craig Richards, Vice President, “Our division originally bid a sizeable renovation project to a large, international CM firm. During Q3, 2021, the wall protection package was worth $6.7M and was removed from the scope of work due to being over budget. The package was rebid during Q2 of 2023 at $7.6M. This was a 13% increase in 18 months.”

Matt Recchiuti, Vice President, “Our team recently rebid a steel package. Our original steel package was quoted at $53,500 in February 2023, and after the project rebid in August 2023, the final (unchanged) steel package was purchased for $58,000. This is almost a 17% annualized increase in steel pricing.”

Kevin Joseph, Project Executive, “One notable and frustrating reality that my team faces is the fact that more than half of the projects we bid this past quarter were so far over budget that the project could not proceed. It seems that across various industries and types of projects, owner’s budgets have not caught up with the price increases that exist in Central Ohio. Some owners mention that they plan to wait to rebid work once prices decrease, but we have not seen any indication that this is a realistic plan.”

While at times it may feel like we are spinning our wheels with all the budgets and rebidding, we would rather provide realistic, inclusive budgets and bids then submit low numbers with the hope of winning and not failing.

First Quarter Economic Indicator – A look forward

mmcrebuildstg on May 10, 2023

Now wrapping up Q1 and moving into Q2, at Miles-McClellan Construction, we continue to see a confusing assortment of trends. Below is a quick summary of what we have been seeing over the last 30 days and what we expect more of in Q2:

The broad trend speaks to the continued rising interest rates but now with an added twist of uncertainty around the banking industry’s stability. As a result of recent bank collapses and the discussions around bank capitalization and the quality of the assets on the balance sheets, lending has started to tighten. At Miles-McClellan Construction, we are experiencing many projects that are either delayed or canceled due to financing issues.
The private construction market continues to slow down because of rising construction costs and interest rates. As a result, we continue to bid on the plethora of public projects available this spring. Two notable trends in this bidding arena are: 1) we are starting to see a longer list of GC bidders on each project, and 2) we are also starting to see more subcontract numbers come in under each trade category of each bid. This trend will eventually lead to lower pricing, as increased competition always does.

A couple of specific examples to share are:

Craig Richards, Vice President, “In the past few years, concrete pricing held pretty steadily while other materials were escalating. However, in the last year, concrete pricing has been on the rise. For example, we paid $135.50/CY on a mid-sized project in August of 2022. We are starting a similar project this May 2023, and concrete is now $155.50/CY – a 15% increase.”

Matt Recchiuti, Vice President, “I was recently talking to a client, and she had just found out that the 1,000,000 SF warehouse project she was going to manage was being canceled. The cancellation was because the lessee agreed to lose their deposit while backing out of the lease.”

Brad Bloomberg, Vice President, “My team used to bid 1-2 public jobs a month, and now we are averaging 5-7 per month. That is a swing of 75% private bidding to 75% public bidding over the last quarter.”

Kevin Joseph, Project Executive, “We recently contacted a shower door supplier to revisit pricing we originally received in September 2022. As a result of our inquiry, the manufacturer lowered their shipping costs by 50%, giving the owner significant project savings.”

Between now and our next publication, we will closely monitor interest rate projections and construction costs as the competition increases. We will need this up-to-date information as we work to provide our clients with competitive and realistic project budgets.

Fourth Quarter Economic Indicator – Looking Ahead

mmcrebuildstg on March 7, 2023

Going into the first quarter of any year, we expect the bid market to pick up with the expectation of spring projects that have been in design throughout the winter. What we are seeing is a mixed bag of trends, and we hope sharing these trends with you will help you plan your pending projects.

Below is a quick summary of what we have been seeing over the last 60 days:

The broad trend speaks to the rising interest rates and rising construction costs. The private market has slowed down. Our private clients request budgets, but only some projects are heading into construction. We have currently been bidding and working on more public projects. We don’t expect this to continue because the slowdown in demand will drive construction pricing lower, which will eventually offset the rising interest rates in proformas.
There has been an increased sense of urgency to get formal approval for change orders on our existing projects and across all types of projects we work on. Subcontractors are hesitant to hold their pricing for over a few weeks, so we are forced to push owners and construction managers to get signed approval to lock in pricing. We support our subcontractor team in this effort, but in return and to help protect our clients, we ask for secured manpower so that our clients receive the service on time.
Owner’s preconstruction budgets continue to underestimate the cost of future construction. This creates rebid situations for public and private projects, resulting in project delays and frustrated owners before the project starts. We recommend multiple looks at the budgets you are creating today: one by your architect and one by your contractor. Then lock the project leaders in a room until they agree on the budget.

As a recent example, we bid on a health clinic in early August 2022. It was a competitive bid and Miles-McClellan was not the lower bidder. Our bid was 94% over the owner’s budget, coming in at $1.4M. The owner and architect rebid the project after taking the time to redesign and go through value engineering. The revised budget was raised 55% over the original budget, and our revised bid in October 2023 was submitted just above the revised budget. We were awarded the project 14 months after the initial bid.

Miles-McClellan Construction Builds Vital Retail and Dining Experiences for Charlotte, North Carolina Communities

mmcrebuildstg on December 14, 2022

No industry was affected more by the global pandemic than the restaurant and retail industries, but both industries are on the rebound. In fact, earlier this year these industries were predicted to grow between 6 and 8 percent by the end of this year. And with the remarkable population growth, the retail establishments and restaurants are thriving in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Miles-McClellan is proud to be a part of that growth with our retail and restaurant partners who are an integral part of Charlotte’s growth.

Here are some of Miles-McClellan’s commercial construction projects that help make North Carolina a great place to live, work and play.

Festive Food & Music

Loretta’s is a high-volume restaurant with private function space serving French, Creole, and southern cuisine, featuring live jazz, neo soul and gospel music.

Miles-McClellan managed the demolition of the original building to construct a 7,500-SF back-to-shell space as well as finishing the beautiful, fun space with upscale VIP areas, liquor lockers and a custom bar.

Head to Beatties Ford Road

As part of a community revitalization of an area rich in history but in need of change, Miles-McClellan was hired to help redevelop a neighborhood block to include shopping, banking, dining and more. Miles-McClellan managed the renovation of the existing retail space at 2020 Beatties Ford Road in Charlotte including renovation to the shell of the building and finishing out one of the tenant spaces for a juice bar. In addition, Miles-McClellan served as the general contractor for the renovation of an existing building for the new 1,600-SF BW Sweets and for the renovation of existing space for Mackins Bridal Boutique, both across the street from the 2020 Beatties Ford Road project.

Tacos, Anyone?

When Ohio-based Condado Tacos made its North Carolina debut in Charlotte, Miles-McClellan was there to complete a 4,600-SF interior build out for the restaurant in an existing multi-story building. The work included interior finishes, non-bearing demising walls, ceilings, lighting, food service equipment and exterior changes, including new patio railing and the addition of a new overhead door within the existing storefront opening.

Discover Charlotte’s New Man Cave and Add Some Joy to Your Home

Miles-McClellan is excited to be a part of bringing a luxury furniture design showroom and a new home décor stall retailer to Charlotte. The Miles-McClellan team managed a 7,600-SF retail interior build out for Amodernary Furniture Design at SouthPark and an 88,000-SF renovation for Southern Lion in the Carolina Place Mall, which will feature vender stalls offering furniture, home décor, accessories, art and clothing, a café, meeting spaces and a “man cave” complete with TVs and lounge chairs.

Retail and restaurants have always played vital roles in the business, social, economic and artistic soul of a thriving society. Miles-McClellan takes great pride in building success by building thriving communities. Contact us today to bring great dining and shopping experiences to your community. We build success by Building Excellence!

Q3 2022 Economic Indicators

mmcrebuildstg on November 3, 2022

Both our Q1 and Q2 2022 Economic Indicator reports emphasized the effect inflation is having on our industry. It continues to be my goal to share both published trends and commentary as well as local Miles-McClellan experiences.

ENR’s Economics Report on future material and labor price trends, “2022 Third Quarterly Cost Report” was just released and I’m including some information from that report here.

To kick off the report, Richard Branch, chief economist at Dodge Construction Network, is quoted as saying, “The construction sector has turned into a tale of two worlds. First, the nonresidential sector has been a solid performer as manufacturing, public works and data center construction have flourished. Conversely, single-family construction continued to trend sharply lower as rising mortgage rates have led to worsening affordability. The question, though, is how the entire construction sector will react to still higher interest rates over the coming quarters as the Federal Reserve continues its inflation battle with aggressive rate hikes.”

The report goes on to focus on both materials and labor. It details 15 different construction inputs and notes that prices vary, year-to-date, from -6.0% (copper), to +22.6% (asphalt paving). Of the 15 areas tracked, 12 were higher since January 2022 and all 12 categories were up by double digits through August 2022. The article does go on to explain why ENR anticipates soft lumber and steel to start moving downward in 2023, but acknowledges the trends really depend on how increasing interest rates affect demand.

Labor rates also continue to rise, however, now at a much faster pace. Both union and non-union wages had been averaging between 2-3% annual increases, however, the numbers jumped to 4-5% average increases in 2022. According to Ken Simonson, chief economist of the Associated General Contractors of America, “I believe we’re in a prolonged period of 5% wage increases or even more for craftworkers.”

At M-M, we will continue to work very hard for our clients to control unwanted price increases and schedule delays. Our strategy has been to maintain strong relationships with constant communications with our subcontractors and suppliers so that we have the most up-to-date information to share on each of our projects.